A Wider Union Needs All Six

The Commission's new enlargement package gets a great deal right. Its list of roadmaps is where it falls short.

The European Commission this week adopted "Preparing for a wider Union", its package on how the EU must change before it takes in new members.

The Commission concludes that the Union can accommodate a larger membership within its existing treaties, and that its budget can do the same. That settles the oldest argument for delay.

It proposes qualified majority voting for opening negotiating clusters, so that one capital can no longer hold up a candidate at every intermediate step. It suggests that new members commit, for a limited period, not to block later entrants over bilateral disputes. It promises a more structured path of gradual integration in energy, transport, digital and defence.

Each of these would help the Western Balkans. Several problems the region has lived with for years.

The difficulty sits under "next steps". As part of the 2026 Enlargement Package, the Commission will present suggestive roadmaps for four countries: Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. Four of the Western Balkan countries, North Macedonia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are not on the list.

Montenegro and Albania have earned their place. Ukraine and Moldova deserve Europe's full support, and both have pursued reform under pressures that few member states have ever faced. The intention is not to argue that their membership should be slowed down. This is an argument about sequence. Ukraine and Moldova applied in 2022. North Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005 and Serbia since 2012. In 2003, the EU itself has said to the whole region that their futures lay inside the Union.

Providing a timetable to the newest applicants while leaving four of the longest-standing applicants without one reflects misplaced priorities. We say that with respect for Kyiv and Chisinau, and for the good intentions behind the choice.

The omission also sits inconsistent with the Commission's own findings. If the Union can absorb new members, capacity is not the constraint. If participation requires strategic alignment, several of the four can point to years of both.

The security case is stronger still. President von der Leyen calls enlargement "a geopolitical imperative". New WB30 research shows that, she is right, and the logic applies with particular force to the Western Balkans, which are surrounded on every side by EU members.

A region half inside the Union and half outside it is not a stable arrangement. It leaves a gap in the heart of Europe, and those hostile to Europe have shown that they know how to use it. Excluding any one of the six keeps that gap open.

There is a practical cost too. The six economies have spent years building a common regional market, with the EU's encouragement and funding. Roadmaps for two and none for the rest of the region will create difficulties both between and within the remaining states.

WB30 advocates for the accession of all the Western Balkan states by 2030. The Commission describes its roadmaps as indicative and dependent on reform momentum. A roadmap does not waive a single condition. It tells a government what is required and by when, and it gives reformers something to hold their leaders to.

Reform remains each country's own responsibility, and some of the four have a good deal of work ahead. That is a reason to set out the path, not to withhold it.

There is a precedent. In 2004, the EU admitted ten states on the same day. They were not identically prepared. Europe's leaders judged that the continent was safer and more prosperous with all of them inside, and events have borne that out. Admitting the Western Balkans together is the same kind of decision. It is political, not technical.

This is why the annual Enlargement Package matters. It is the document that sets the region's expectations for the year ahead, and governments, investors and voters across the Balkans read it closely. This year's edition has yet to be published and European leaders take up enlargement at the European Council this month.

Europe must take the opportunity to complete the list: six roadmaps for the Western Balkans, alongside those for Ukraine and Moldova, with 2030 as a shared horizon. Unfortunately, this seems unlikely.

The Commission has shown that the Union can be ready. What remains is a decision, a decision to fulfil Europe's promise to the Western Balkans. A decision not to leave behind Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo and North Macedonia and a decision which is driven by a vision and confidence from Europe's leaders.